Over the past month, one of the most interesting questions in international relations has been the whereabouts of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While it now appears that things are returning to the status quo, as Kim seems to be resuming his public appearances, his mystery absence was allowing people around the globe to wonder “what if”. Though many have and are still wondering to what extent Kim Jong-un’s leadership style really differs from his father’s, his long absence allowed for extensive speculation on how North Korean politics could change if there was a change in leadership.
First and foremost, regardless of how a new political leadership in North Korea would look like, there would be change. The level of change, however, is highly unpredictable. North Korea could, similar to China enter a period of slow, market-oriented reforms. Or, the country could, like the states of the former Soviet Union, plunge into a phase of unrestricted capitalism that followed the years after the fall of the Iron Curtain. But regardless of the level and pace of change that could occur, a significant political shift in North Korea would probably cause a local economic boom. In some ways, the relationship between the two Koreas might be best compared to the fate of the two Germany’s, whose political and economic union created a more politically influential and economically stable whole than the sum of its parts could be on their own.
But the differences between the North and the South are dramatic:
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The current GDP per capita (PPP) in North Korea is approximately $1,800, lagging China’s and South Korea’s, $9,800 and $33,200, respectively.
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A large percentage of North Korean GDP comes from agriculture (23.4%), while a relatively small percentage comes from services (29.4%). In both South Korea and China, agriculture contributes 10% or less, and services more than 45% of the nations’ total GDP.
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International sanctions and political isolation have decimated North Korea’s international trade. The country’s trade per capita income is currently estimated to be at $161 (exported) and $197 (imported). This is merely a fraction of the international trade generated in the population rich People’s Republic of China ($1,631 exported and $1,439 imported) and in South Korea, where the international trade per capita income is about 100 times the size of North Korea ($11,373 exported and $10,543 imported).
As any student of economics knows all too well, a localized anomaly can only exist for a short period of time before being drawn back to balance with its surroundings. In the case of North Korea, this balance would take the form of significant economic growth, increased levels of international trade, and a massive influx of foreign direct investment (beyond just the current trade zones). Naturally, this can be a growth opportunity for any business, but besides real political change to capitalize on the Korean market will require the use of a translation and localization company that has a grasp of the language as well as the local business culture.
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